Two days ago, from the time I write this, a peace plan for Ukraine was leaked, most likely from the White House or from the Pentagon. It didn’t reveal much detail, but from any of those sources, anything could be expected. Two days in and the contents all over the news, I can confirm that it must look exactly like the put’n wishlist for Christmas presents. And there’s nothing in it for Ukraine.

The proposal consists of a long list of points to be accepted by the parties. These parties being russia, the USA, and Ukraine. Notably, Ukraine was not involved in creating the list or proposing items on the list – all of this was done between the USA and russia. Also, the EU or indeed NATO had no say in the matter.

The list:

Here’s a concise version of the list:

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty is to be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression pact between Russia, Ukraine and Europe is to be concluded. All ambiguities from the past 30 years are to be considered resolved.
3. Russia is not expected to invade neighboring countries and NATO is not to expand further.
4. A dialogue between Russia and NATO, with the United States as a mediator, is to resolve security issues and create conditions for detente, global security and future cooperation.
5. Ukraine is to receive reliable security guarantees.
6. Ukraine’s armed forces are to be limited to 600,000 people.
7. Ukraine is to renounce NATO membership in its constitution, and NATO is to include in its charter that Ukraine cannot be admitted in the future.
8. NATO is not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets are to be stationed in Poland.
10. American guarantees:
    – The United States receives compensation for the guarantee.
    – If Ukraine invades Russia, the country loses the guarantee.
    – If Russia invades Ukraine, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of new territory and other benefits of the agreement will be revoked.
    – If Ukraine fires missiles at Moscow or St. Petersburg without reason, the guarantee will be terminated.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term priority in the European market during the evaluation.
12. A global reconstruction package for Ukraine, including:
    a. Creation of a development fund for high-growth industries.
    b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to rebuild, develop and operate gas infrastructure.
    c. Joint efforts to restore war-torn areas.
    d. Infrastructure development
    e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
    f. The World Bank will develop special financing packages.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
    a. Sanctions can be lifted gradually and on a case-by-case basis.
    b. The US and Russia can enter into long-term economic cooperation in energy, infrastructure, AI, data centers and mining projects.
    c. Russia is invited to return to the G8.
14. Frozen assets are used as follows:
    – $100 billion of frozen Russian assets are invested in the reconstruction of Ukraine under US leadership, the US receives 50% of the profits. Europe contributes $100 billion. The remaining frozen Russian funds are returned or placed in a joint investment fund for the US and Russia.
15. A joint US-Russian working group on security issues is established.
16. Russia is to enshrine its non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine in law.
17. The US and Russia are to extend the validity of nuclear arms limitation agreements, including START I.
18. Ukraine is to be a non-nuclear weapon state under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
19. The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is to be operated under IAEA supervision, with electricity shared 50/50 between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Both countries shall introduce educational programs in schools and society to promote understanding and tolerance between cultures and to combat racism and prejudice.
    a. Ukraine shall comply with EU rules on the protection of religious and linguistic minorities.
    b. Both countries shall abolish discriminatory measures and guarantee media and educational rights.
    c. All Nazi ideology and activities shall be banned.
21. Territories:
    a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk shall be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
    b. Kherson and Zaporizhia shall be frozen along the contact line.
    c. Russia shall cede other agreed territories outside the five regions.
    d. Ukrainian forces shall withdraw from the parts of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control. The area shall become a neutral, demilitarized buffer zone internationally recognized as Russian territory. Russian forces shall not enter this zone.
22. Both countries shall commit not to change future territorial arrangements by force.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper for trade, and free transport of grain across the Black Sea will be guaranteed.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
    a. All prisoners and bodies will be returned on an “all for all” basis.
    b. All civilian prisoners and hostages will be returned, including children.
    c. Family reunification programs will be introduced.
    d. Measures to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the conflict.
25. Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days.
26. All parties will receive full amnesty and will waive future claims related to the war.
27. The agreement will be legally binding and will be monitored by the Peace Council, led by Donald Trump. Sanctions for violations.
28. The ceasefire will take effect immediately after the parties withdraw to the agreed positions.

Problems with the list:

• It already starts with point 1 that confirms the sovereignty of Ukraine where this was never a question in the first place.
• It was concocted by russia and the USA without any involvement of Ukraine.
• It shows very small and vague guarantees for Ukraine, but sticks mainly to the demands russia has announced in all earlier plans. Similar to previous plans, there are no real advantages for Ukraine – the victim, and only advantages for russia – the aggressor.
• The USA will be compensated for keeping the peace (point 10). This is typical for the current administration – transactional only.
• A peace council – of all people, led by trump – will monitor the agreement.
• The agreement will be void in case russia finds Ukraine not sticking to the terms. Do you still remember the original reason russia had for the 3-day special military operation to invade Ukraine? No? It was to ‘free Ukraine of nazism’. With this stipulation, any small thing that russia can bend to show Ukraine not sticking to the agreement can and will be used to invade Ukraine again.
• The EU has no role in any of it, not in the agreement, not in monitoring it, not in anything.
• With trump and put’n concocting this peace plan, the focus should be on the relationship between the two. The US president seems more eager to please his russian colleague than come up with a realistic peace plan that views russia as the aggressor and Ukraine as the victim.
• Where’s EU leadership? Almost all EU countries recognize russia as the aggressor, yet no viable initiative to help form a peace plan has been initiated. As such, the EU behaved in a deplorable manner and failed big time.
• …

Believe me when I state there is so much more to be said about the plan by people more qualified than myself to do so. But even as a non-specialist in these matters, the flaws in the plan are evident, as are the underhanded intentions of russia and the USA. I continue to admire President Zelensky enormously for time and time again keeping his patience with what he is facing in his role as wartime president of Ukraine.

It can safely be stated that the present content of the peace proposal has been largely defined by russia and put’n. It holds no advantages for Ukraine, not for long-lasting peace. With russia dictating the rules, and the way they’ve behaved previously, there is no guarantee whatsoever that the peace will be a lasting one – rather the opposite, I’d say.

Positive views:

• Elections are to be held within 100 days. With the ongoing chaos in Ukraine, this is probably pushing it, but I think Zelensky will be more than happy to hand over his duties to an elected successor.

Reactions:

When asked his opinion of the peace plan, Zelensky responded not to immediately denounce the plan but rather being eager to discuss ‘major issues in a constructive manner’. And he would like to talk to the US president very soon.

When the US government was asked about the role of the EU, they responded not to be interested in Europe, only Ukraine needs to agree the plan.

For comparison, I suggest reading up on the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, aka the Hitler-Stalin pact between russia and Nazi Germant from 1939 here. Or perhaps the Munich agreement between England and Nazi Germany from 1938 here. History is riddled with pacts and agreements promising long-lasting peace that in fact aren’t worth the paper they were written on.

For now:

Slava Ukraini!
Слава Україні!

Paul
2025-11
Sweden

Sources:

• svt.se
• ad.nl